Determining the Margin of Error that Introduces Systematic Sampling of Public Opinion Polls (the Case of the Current Electorate of Tirana)


  • Fatbardha Doçi



The error that inserts when is not ensuring the anonymity of the respondents in a systematic sampling, when are made question that considered as delicate.


In polls that conducted today in Albanian reality, note that the margin of error is in the level + - 3%, regardless of other elements that affect in the validity of the polls. In the validity of answers, affects negatively also the questions with delicate problems . For getting these sincere responses, an important role plays the nature of the questions.If the questionnaire is composed of questions that can be characterized as fragile, then for the question that in itself treat political topics, the interviewer has a tendency to not show sincere to these questions. Questions with delicate topics tend to give respond less valuable . The methodology suggests that, when it is not possible to avoid delicate questions, become our best to preserve the anonymity of the respondent, which does not sure by the systematic sampling, which inevitably makes the respondent identifiable .So in this sample,respondents perceive themselves as identifiable. This causes them to feel threatened, if they give honest answers. Insincerity produces additional error that is intended to determine in the context of this paper. The study is not type explanatory, that uses working hypothesis as an assumed response to a research question, but experimental exploratory type, which seeks to test empirically the basic assumption and simultaneously determine the margins of error that are made in measurements to the public opinion when not respected the anonymity of respondents when we make delicate question.The experiment on which this paper is based, aims to test the basic assumption