Investigating the Twin Deficits in Albania
Keywords:twin deficits, granger test, simultaneous equation
AbstractThis paper focuses on the direction of causality between budget deficit and current account deficit in Albania based on Granger causality tests. We use annual macroeconomic data for the period from 1992 to 2014. Before proceeding with the empirical analysis we test for unit root, the non-parametric Phillips-Peron test is conducted. The classical Granger test is extended including control variables such as private investment and savings, exchange rates, inflation rate, and interest rate. Empirical results support the evidence of a causal link between the twin deficits. In this sense fiscal budget cannot be considered as a fully controlled variable. A fiscal policy has important macroeconomic implications in the foreign trade indicators. To further investigate on the robustness of our results we examined the causal link between budget deficit and current account deficit based on the simultaneous equation. Results still persist in the bidirectional relationship between these two deficits.
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