Impact of Political Instability on the Reality of Iraqi Political Parties: A Study According to the Results of the 2018 Elections

The Iraqi political parties had been affected since 2003 by the political pivotal transformations which happened according to the aftermaths of democratic elections , especially under the disruptions of American’s invasion that led in cooperation with its allies in April 2003 .So the social and political situations became ruling according to the new aspects of practicing the new stage of authority as compromise settlements and quota and ethno sectarian distribution to be as following as compatible with theory of practicing the authority responsibilities(Power sharing ) as what happened now , besides to that all political democracy scene has greatly been distorted because of the instability penetrated within rebuilding the state and its institutions from the beginning as planned by an active powerful political forces . Many functions that are characterized by competitions among the political parties had changed the concepts of exercising democracy in a real way to be done an effective shape ,because of the political and social actors had different role ,which were being a reflection of another reality within the democracy’s process .So that all the situations had been complicated too much owing to the factors of political instability that influenced negatively on the framework of the state , especially the impacts of economic and social factors as of poverty, stagnation , ignorance and disease and another underdevelopment features which predominated over political and social retrogression levels . In addition to that the absence of an efficient administrative elites , which appeared recently under different conditions and circumstances .So it was became very obviously as we know precisely that democracy’s process in Iraq since 2003 was comprehensively undemocratic in practicing because the political forces have not democratic culture that encourage the dialogue to solve all pending problems , and have not abundant tolerance to accept the differences of others parties yet . The phenomenon of the political instability has divided into different varieties by which scattering among the addresses of suspicion and it definitely has a sectarian discourse dimension in case of dealing among each other . So these addresses and dialogues were being away from the political national conformity correctly , because of there was something like definitely as the exclusion and marginalization discourses in order to narrowing any active political party within the political process try to do pro – active role to settle all pending crises . Furthermore , the reality of political life has been under the continuous crises and conflicts over an authority along time not to gain gradually the outcomes of procurement during application the constitution clauses and valid laws , in order to preserving the political stability and to be done more far from the national unity fragmentation and the weakness of political institutions . Finally , we need too much time to reach into condition of stability , especially after opening anew spaces toward active real participation , and because there was a growing need for educated people who could administer the society and the state institutionally by existing strong government, and ultimately peoples will have ability to form new political governing elites later


Introduction
The political democracy's process didn't entail the clash among political forces and social elites within Iraqi society and imposing unilateral wills against the others as what happened since 2003 , but it needs to sustain the transformations of political trends peacefully as a realistic democratic pattern and to be more stability in comparing with the huge challenges which confronted the society and the state alike ; especially against the terrorists groups defiance .So there is another urgent need for a vital debate about all pending problems and obstacles that thwarted and dwindled the prospects of political process in Iraq post 2018 elections , and they will have too much problems and crises to override it wittingly for making the general political stability as a ultimate outcome .
The political democracy's process in Iraq is witnessing now a turning point basing on sharing the powers among all political forces , but its inclinations has not been viewed within a dynamic framework , because of absence the peaceful political opposition inside the legislative institution ; then there were multiple factors involved in making instability by stimulus for political change often comes from outside the government and according to the political pressures from all political forces which have obviously the impact over the general stability in Iraq .

The Problem of Research
The political process in Iraq since 2003 has been witnessed different challenges that affected over the political stability , especially due to the desire of all political ruling elites to be as a part of an authority not to contribute for re -building the stability and the peace within structures of institutions framework .

Method of Research
This research shall be based on the analytical systematic approach and also historical approach in an attempt for researching scientifically , and to tackle the dimensions of political instability on the reality of the Iraqi political parties as a study according to the results of the 2018 elections that sprouted various effects over the problematic political transformations as well as societal perils which have reflected on experience of democracy post 2003.

Hypothesis
This research based on a certain hypothesis which tackled the effects of political forces over the political democracy's process since 2003 , So that we witnessed different challenges that wavering the public situations ; specifically the role of the political governing forces in destabilization the whole society and the state alike .

The structure of the research
The research has been distributed into specific prelude and final conclusions , sorting scientifically into three items , firstly the dramatic political transformations toward democracy to analyze the continuous crises within political democracy's process and to know the repercussions of the political chaos on stability .Secondly ,the scientific research has tackled about security defiance against terrorism and the political retrogression to recognize the political untrustworthiness among ruling elites , and to limit the effects of rebuilding the social -security requirements over political stability .Thirdly , we researched about overstepping the efforts to re -build the political stability ; and to diagnose precisely the hard hiatus after elections on 12 May 2018 and political instability, and finally ,to describe the necessity for concluding a comprehensive national discourse .

First : The Dramatic political transformations toward democracy
The method of practicing democracy in Iraq was transformed as a copy from the western pattern method which prevailed vigorously in all countries of the third world as a new form of democratization since the first decade of 1991 .
The multinational force's 2003 invasion of Iraq overthrew previous Iraqi's government and installed replaced of it an interim administration , Then transitional government hold elections on 30 January 2005 ; in order to begin the process of writing a permanent constitution instead of the Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period which was signed on 8 March 2004 by the Iraqi Governing Council .
Accordingly to the international reasons and the internally huge pressures by which motivated different factions and political parties that claimed the January 2005 elections were the first free elections in Iraq's history, to rebuild another experience in democracy's process and to be as legitimate hope to form a condition of a fair representation of all groups ; but on the contrary to that all the scenes had been done effetely as a results of ethno -sectarian partitions of authority .So that all political forces had distracted in rebuild the powers and political influences on behalf of rebuilding a real democracy's experiment and starting in practicing a new pattern of political participation , after violent inherited legacy from the past of despotism rule which predominated severely during more of three decades ago (1968 -2003) .

-The continuous crises within political democracy's process
Iraq's democracy has been witnessed biggest challenges under the circumstances of the formation of any government after procured any election experience , as which elections had continuously caused knotty problems as a political competitions among different social and political active forces in the state , So many security problems had revealed ; especially after the events of falling Mosul province on 9 -10 June 2014 under the hands of the terrorists armed groups , as a result of delaying the national conformity to dissolve all pending controversies among political active parts in society and the state alike .
The political crises in Iraq had begun after the first election which hold on January 30, 2005 , in order to inaugurate a new period under so -called partition of authority (Power sharing) by exercising the legislative roles according to the wills of the political parties not to the clauses of the new permanent constitution of 2005 ; and first of all after hold the parliamentary elections on 15 December 2005 according to the valid constitution .
Furthermore , the post period of 2003 in Iraq adopted the specific principle which pertaining about those who gaining the majority after each experience's election ,So the consequences of these changes were being more not easy , because of the struggle over the same authority regardless of the numerical weight ingredients for any party within the political process ; and the elections were conducted on a clear ethno -sectarian lines ending with a convincing majority for the Shia coalition as a result of the real outcome for procured elections .In spite of Sunni politicians discovered the advantages of bargaining in the negotiations for the formation of a counterpart coalition , So Sunni politicians were invited to form the first national government as so -called previously under the head of " Nouri Al -Maliki " in June 2006 ; and all parties satisfied to share the political positions ( 1 ) .
The same period started after 2008 when the agreement of withdraw United States of America signed for ending the presence of it in Iraq , despite of reality that Sunni tribal militias trained and financed by the Americans , were winning the battle against terrorists (Al -Qaeda organization) and also contributed to the sectarian rapprochement .In the same of this year the Iraqi parliament approved the Justice and accountability Law ; but the election of 2010 was marred by disqualification of hundreds of Sunni candidates due to the allegations of previous membership in the Baath party as pretext .Al Maliki's government could have another advance after winning the municipal elections of 2009 , and there were a target to weaken the Sunni political blocs and another parties as well as a part of imposing the stronger will over all partners in political process ( 2 ) .However , to analyze about what happened in Iraq matters terribly for the peoples thoroughly ; those who hoped so much for the future in order to assuming some of chances , but if we refused this true , we will miss the opportunity to better understand when and how to respond to the instability according to the reality of the coming challenges at the long term ( 3 ) ?Nevertheless , we should elucidate the dimensions of deep -seated review about the framework distinguish between Western democracy and Iraq's nascent democracy , to limit the nature of Iraq's political problem and its effects on the stability by re -examining the facts of practicing democratic process and to make sure of these new political transformations (4) .

-The repercussions of political chaos on stability
The deliberations about the political chaos and its effects on the stability scene must understand the best peaceful and democratic ways to override all problems inside the general political life , So the new stage of democracy in Iraq was worsening the political situation by giving autocratic elites a free hand to impose its wills over the political process ; and this was leading in the direction of reestablishing another pattern in exercising the authority away from the original views of a democratic Iraq (5) .On the other hand , national reconciliation as a specific key of absolute significance to the new development of democracy was definitely reduced to just a few conferences and some inactive official statements , and without any exerting efforts toward a real path to dissolve all pending problems , So the internal situation had become more sufferings from the disputed wills among all political parties and to be done an effected by deficiency status in social capital as a result of that (1) .So that the elections in Iraq should be associated with a various procedures according to the mutual understandings for reaching into a specific resolution , without leaving all participants in democracy's process away from available options by investment the circumstances for seeking about another resources according to the legitimacy of democracy and its effects At least until now , the new experience had failed to produce a real democracy in Iraq , in spite of many Iraqis had benefit from the aftermaths of democracy and elections without restoring the political stability , So if Iraq misses this real opportunity , it would perhaps be the biggest mistake inside the society and it could might made another crises in case of committed by the political forces in democratic process (2) .Furthermore , Iraqi people want to be continued in democracy's process by practicing its political role in holding elections continuously , but democracy couldn't take forward steps without a basic real participation according to the commitment for preserving it's a unitary state and the achievements of democracy recently (3) .
The elections of March 2010 had been given deeply crises because of huge controversies about the form of cabinet , especially after the political intransigence among all political parties within democratic process , to select the heads of three main constitutional institutions according to the principle of quota compromise not depending on the national conformity and agreement; So that the severe competition has been escalated to select a certain political leader irrespective who was the suitable symbol for that decisive stage of practicing nascent democracy in Iraq .Despite of missing agreement about the larger representative bloc inside the parliament which meant the largest number to form the government within ( 15 )  days from the date of election of the president of the republic (4) .But the real crisis was also about who should be the prime minister of Iraq after ( 9 ) months of political differences among the political ruled elites ( Elected parties ) , especially within stubbornness between "Iyad Allawi" and "Nouri Al -Maliki" for heading of the new cabinet .Eventually the Erbil Accord ( Shadowy Erbil framework ) that concluded on 8 August 2010 , ending all political arguments to form rapidly the new national government according to the compromise between "Masoud Al -Barzani" the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and "Al -Maliki" the head of Islamic Al -Dawa party under so -called the national alliance that prepared ultimately the ground for the formation of the second Maliki's government in November 2010 (5) .
Nevertheless ,the nature of the tensions and controversies between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central Iraqi government mounted increasingly through 2011-2012 on the issues of power sharing , oil production and territorial control.In April 2012, the president of Iraq's semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region demanded that officials agree to their demands or face the prospect of secession from Baghdad by September 2012 .This was the main problem in the relationships between of them which ended into another crisis due to Kurds have continuously announced the issue of independence .So they hold an independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan on 25 September 2017; and as a result of what happened , Iraqi federal government in the center ended the Kurdistan controlling over the city of Kirkuk as well as most all of the disputed territories in Northern Iraq had consequently been returned under the control of central government in Baghdad .
So that , the complex pluralistic political scene with the multiple of power had revealed without any agreement on the rules to prevent pluralism from degenerating into conflict , but the power was fragmented and likely to become more in the short run (6) .

Second : Security defiance against terrorism and the political retrogression
The political democracy's process in Iraq has encountered security defiance owing to an international terrorism that undergone effects around the public situations from different sides , especially as a result of falling the city of Mousl in Iraq's Nineveh under the control of terrorists groups as so -called the Islamic state in Iraq and Levant ( Daesh ) on 9 June 2014 after general factors that happened behind of it as following as (1) : A -Sectarian policies : Marginalization of Sunni minority following the 2003 U.S.A led invasion of Iraq had been fostered an anger and resentment due to Debaathification policies and the dissolution of the Iraqi army made Mousl a fertile for extremist groups like ( ISIS ) .
B -Lack of a post 2003 road map : The United states of America lack of a post 2003 plan for Iraq's stabilization and also contributed to the rise of ( ISIS ) and its dangers .
C -The crises within political system : The mechanism of practicing an authority became more far from the reality in comparing with the permanent constitution of 2005 , in addition to that the nature of Al -Maliki's policies toward all political parties in order to consolidate its personal power base and that made the whole situation into another catastrophic status .D -The violent oppressions : The violent suppression of Sunni protestors and the disbanding the Sahwa ( Popular volunteers ) had fostered anger and resentment among the Sunni community , and making them more open to recruitment by extremist groups ultimately .E -The security deterioration : as a result of the ferocity and commitment of (ISIS) fighters led to the fall of Mousl , and there was a general consensus by specialized analysts that Iraqi armed forces were inactive and inability at that moment to confront this type of war against terrorists armed group; as well as the lack of equipment had become the main reason to city's fall .F -The international community's shortcomings : The international community's unwavering support for AL -Maliki's government previously , notably owing to the great failures to pursuit the political reforms among all the political ruling elites and the another political forces too .

-The political untrustworthiness among ruling elites
The political process had been passed under huge of interceptive wills and The transition status to transfer from covert control into overt control ,So this is nevertheless very important, because it represents a huge public challenge to the Baghdad authorities recently.For a start, ( Isis ) has seized large quantities of arms, equipment and fuel, including different military arms , as well as millions of dinars from the Iraqi banks as a result of security repercussions in different areas of northern and western regions of Iraq .So the Baghdad's government will have to try to take Mosul back by force due to Iraq has large armed forces again ,but like almost every other instrument of state in a corrupt and incompetent administration became far less effective than they should be expectantly intentioned (2) .
The proliferation of sub-state actors during the fight against (ISIS) triggered rival co-optation efforts on the premise that those who provided security earns and have the right to govern as they desire .Such governance is highly unstable, because there is no central arbiter, and usually short-lived.Hence the need for state institutions to reassert control, and this ambition was long thwarted by the Kurdish claim to many of the disputed territories, but since the ill-conceived Kurdish referendum and its aftermath, meaningful dialogue and negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil should again become possible after the formation of a new government ultimately (3) .The constitution of Iraq didn't represent an agreement among political forces , and the constitution itself not backed by a political pact , So it was considerably fragile as a result of increasing the claims from Kurdish forces to grant the more powers instead of the real federal powers of the central government in Baghdad ; as were the responsibilities became more confused in comparing with the other provinces that could become as autonomous unit by imposing their wills as happened from the Kurdistan regional autonomy , So the conflict over the formation of new regions in Iraq had been accepted as a part of a federal constitution without agreeing to a federal form of government (1) .While the 2008 provincial law(No.21)have increased the powers of provincial governments, and there is no doubt that the provincial elections of 2009 and 2013 had consequently been performed the scope of controversies between the central unit and the local units .
However , Iraq's central government was perceived a certain path to reduce the centrifugal forces by taking part all political and social groups in the regional and national government a like , but the real disputes among the central units and local units had increased about whoever's responsibility over control of Iraq's natural resources ; which have tugged at these centrifugal forces ; thereby fueling the political tensions by which the federal structure was designed to accommodate in order to solve it consequently not to be remained as a problematic issue (2) .Meanwhile , The prime minister " AL -Maliki "also sought to discredit provincial authorities in the eyes of their own citizens, when the citizens angered by the lack of services and made of popular demonstrations for demanding to achieve the political and economic reforms during the " Days of Rage " which beginning in late of January 2011."AL -Maliki" sought also to deflect blame onto the provincial government , because of His accusations that incompetent provincial officials that were responsible for the dismal levels of services backfired in many Iraqi regions (3) .
So that the democracy's political process requires several tools could be pursued by political ruling elites in order to achieve a conditions of political stability in Iraq ,in spite of huge difficulties that adopting theoretically due to of different explanations to the clauses of valid constitution of 2005 , and according to the rules of the governance of law , but the campaign of fighting corruption incompatible to the international indications of accountability and transparency which had been remained very weakness since 2003 ; and prohibiting the political banishment or cooptation among the whole governing elites those who have the right of participation in political process , So it had to be continued constantly due to the desire of consolidating their powers within its authority .

-The effects of re -building social -security requirements over political stability
Iraq's parliamentary elections which hold in 2014 and saw the ruling Shiite National Alliance form to be as a coalition government with the Kurds and Sunnis political parties , but the rise and collapse of (ISIS) in Iraq fundamentally had changed the dynamics of Sunni politics and also inter-sectarian politics in Iraq.So there was an emerging political framework that took a different shape in Iraq -Islamist political parties especially versus to the civil/secular parties.So that much of the Sunni population was detached from Sunni leaders in Baghdad, and granting" Haider AL-Abadi " a better chance to win in the coming elections as he is regarded by many Sunnis and Shiites as a compromise between various blocs.The collapse in support for Vice President " Usama Al-Nujaifi's " by Al-Mutahidoon coalition at the last election meant there will be a number of Sunni parties erupted rivalry for supporting them in the 2018 elections.the popularity of those who were prominent as part of Iraq's business-as-usual, quota-driven political model has declined.The traditional Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish blocs, split along ethnic and sectarian lines, are not as popular with voters as they once were, and there are also plenty of new divisions within them (4) .
Among the Shia bloc itself , the division between the " AL-Maliki and AL-Sadr/Hakim " factions emerged in the 2013 after the provincial council elections in southern Iraq, but AL-Maliki's support waned due to the damaging impact of his sectarian political agenda."Haider AL-Abadi " avoided much of the political muck-raking surrounding the election, and may triumph in 2018 because many voters and notables want to avoid the insecurity resulting from a more powerful victor (5) .
Despite the vibrancy of the campaigning, there were many reasons to be done pessimistic about the elections of 2018 in Iraq and it was sharply divided country into different factions.So prime Minister " Haider Al-Abadi " has been created his own "victory" coalition to capitalize on claims he led the country to victory over (ISIS) as what happened on 11 November 2017.On the one hand, the multiplicity of parties could be seen as a sign of a healthy democracy; but many of them are relatively narrow and sectarian from the another hand later .So in the Kurdish region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) will compete with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan ( PUK) ,and with the Gorran (Change) party and also with several small socialist and Islamic parties.The divisions were being happened as a historic problem, but they have been increased since the independence referendum law that concluded and hold it on 25 September 2017.For example, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) was not campaigning in Kirkuk , because of its officials were pushed out of the city in October 2017 when Baghdad's government sent the Iraqi army forces to remove Kurdish Peshmerga from controlling the disputed areas .The elections thus put the reality test of unity experience on Iraq and the Kurdish region even though many disputes were not resolved yet.The same divisions exist between the Shi'ite politicians who dominate Baghdad and Sunni Arab areas that were devastated during the war with (ISIS).In Sunni areas," Iyad Allawi" was competing against local lists and Usama al Nujayfi's Muttahidoon alliance.It's more difficult to see major differences between the platforms of these groups but each of one has its local support, some of which is based on the family and tribal ties (1) .
Iraq has won the battle against (ISIS), but What will be happened in the post-ISIS peace period?This is the main question in front of the government of Prime Minister "Haider Al-Abadi" faces as it heads into the election season.Rather than providing a reprieve, the parliamentary and governorate elections scheduled for 12 May 2018 threaten to perpetuate instability.If the past is any guide, Iraq will see several months of pre-election posturing, alliance formation and inflamed political rhetoric, followed by a prolonged and turbulent period of post-election government formation (2) .Furthermore , the federal government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) in Erbil over the core issues that have vexed their relationship perplexedly , and the dividing and sharing of political control and oil revenues in the disputed territories become into controversial matter .These priorities are interconnected; the EU and its member states can help Iraq to make forward progress, but much limited , on all of them through the deft use of reconstruction funds.As for the Kurdistan region, it is undergoing its own post-referendum upheaval, and the EU and its member states can do much to assist the Kurdish polity to organize credible regional assembly elections and carry out a much-needed political transition as well for the future (3) .

Third : Overstepping the efforts to re -build the political stability
While it is difficult to know the dimensions of impact of the regional and international actors over the political reality in Iraq , notably after hold the elections in order to rearrange the requirements of settlement problems which concerning with mutual ties to, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia , U.S.A etc… and their relations with various local communities, to the extent that they pursue objectives consistent such as with an Iranian strategic agenda and are recruiting fighters from among the local population to help secure those interests, they are creating a parallel model of rule in comparing with the interests of rest active powers in the world ,as far as exerting efforts to confront the international terrorism phenomenon since more (15)  years ago .This model, familiar from Iran itself and from other states in the region , as well as from Iran's role in Syria and Lebanon recently alike."AL-Abadi" who like his predecessors has tried to balance Iran's interests with those of the U.S., Turkey and Saudi Arabia, he faces a serious challenge firmly .the PMUs also have sprouted political parties primed to compete in the national elections, and are co-opting local tribal and minority leaders, giving them an advantage in local elections.To prevail in the elections and create a governing majority, "AL-Abadi" will have to work with some forces that oppose Iran's spreading influence, including former rivals and adversaries such as Kurdish parties and the Sunni politicians; exploit intra-Shiite divisions; and solicit the support of the Shiite religious establishment headed by Grand Ayatollah "Ali al-Sistani".In addition, he will need to try to reduce the PMUs' role in the disputed territories by reinserting state security forces that recruit manpower from among the local population, and luring back skilled government administrators who fled these areas after (ISIS) arrived, and many of whom found shelter in the Kurdish region and became at any way co-optation targets for the Kurdish parties (4) .
Prime Minister " Haider Al-Abadi " and the winner of the general parliamentary elections " Muqtada al-Sadr " held a joint press conference after a meeting late on 19 May 2018 , in which they spoke of their vision for Iraq's future, signaling that ( 1 ) Can Iraq's elections bring stability after ISIS?Look at for more details: The Hill newspaper ,http://thehill.com/opinion/international/386337-can-iraqs-elections-bring-stability-after-isis,2018 , P. 2 .
( 3 ) Ibid , P .2 .( 4 ) Ibid , PP . 2 -3 .they may work together, " There was a clear message in this meeting , hoping that your government will be all inclusive " , as said Sadr.Both had run on platforms advocating a non-sectarian, technocratic government, and the new government should be strong and provide public services and security to the people in the coming four years (1) .So that an Iraqi Kurdish delegation from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has also left Erbil for Baghdad to take part in talks on the formation of a new Iraqi government ( The cabinet), and they will have to work in order to achieve the rights of the Kurds and to be a real partner in the political democratic process for the future versus previous period that witnessed postpone of fulfillment its demands (2) .In spite of the preponderance decisive solution in the formation of new government in the coming period recently, by establishing a stronger political coalition between the coalition led by a Shiite cleric, " MoQtada al-Sadr " and AL -Fatah Alliance in cooperation with the another political coalitions .

-The hard hiatus after elections on 12 May 2018 and political instability
The democracy's political process in Iraq had been fulfilled according to the equation of comprise among different political forces in order to practicing the political work as known previously in liberal states that explicated the western democracy in parallel with what could have been doing within political conditionality that imposing exclusively over the developed countries, but the reality devoted otherwise approach as so-called the quota incompatible with ethno -sectarian affiliations inside the whole society of Iraqi democracy's process .So the distribution of authority became ruled with the theory of powers partitions(Power sharing) among political governing elites , as what happened in the formation of The Iraqi Governing Council on 12 July 2003 .Thus, the political process sprouted a status of interactions among different participants , essentially after taking over transitional stage to be necessity in carrying out and exercising a new nascent democracy ; to distinguish between the procedures political work and the real challenges that confronted the political process, in order to achieve political stability in Iraq , by adopting obvious rules of the practicing the constitutional articles .
However ,There was another problematic issue that revealed concerning with the level of upper three presidencies notably the President of republic and his deputies (3) ,and the President of parliament and his deputies (2) ; and the Prime minister with his deputies (3 -2) .Especially, the main problems had become on the whole parliamentary elections which hold according to many laws of elections such as on 15 December 2005 which concluded according to the electoral law ( No.16 ) which enacted on 9 September 2005 and it increased the number of seats to ( 325 ).But the second parliamentary elections concluded on 7 March 2010 according to the electoral law( No.26) which enacted on 9 December 2009 ; and the third parliamentary elections ( the number seats of parliament became 328 members according to the electoral law No.45 that promulgated in 2013 and its amendments later in November 2017) which concluded on 30 April 2014 under so hard political and security tensions and circumstances too , specifically after the fall down of Mousl province later under the terrorism of the extremists groups of Islamic state ( ISIS ) on 9 -10 June 2014.the future of Iraqi political system after fourth legislative election which hold on 12 May 2018 needs to a comprehensive reforms among different political forces (6,904 candidates from 87 parties are contesting and competing for 329 seats), and to conduct the political democracy's process by consolidating peaceful competitions as compatible with the constitutional articles of 2005, and to encourage the national accord about basic principles of democracy to preserve what's happened until present time .

-The necessity for concluding a comprehensive national discourse :
The political democracy's process witnessed an important development after Iraq's May parliamentary election was marred by low turnout and allegations of fraud , to override the stalling talks on forming of a new government , considerably the Iraq's parliament has mandated a nationwide manual recount of votes (3) .An Iraqi judicial body will oversee a manual recount of ballots from last month's election that including many who had apparently lost their seats in the election which amended the election law to demand a manual recount overseen by a panel of judges.The May 12 election appeared to result in a surprising victory for the coalition led by a Shiite cleric, " MoQtada al-Sadr " , overturning a political establishment that has been entrenched since 2005.So that since the election result announced , the politicians have made a barrage of complaints about voting irregularities, often without citing any evidence, and have made competing demands to address those flaws.The vote and its aftermath had crystallized pent-up frustration among Iraqi political parties and the international community about the performance of the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq ,So the quasi-autonomous agency that oversees campaigns and elections; and the results, however, have not been formally ratified, as the country has waited for the electoral commission to investigate allegations of isolated cases of fraud and reports of malfunctions in new electronic ballot machines (1) .
The upcoming parliamentary elections may represent an important turning point in Iraqi politics as, the rivalry between current prime minister " Haider Al-Abadi " and his predecessor " Nouri al-Maliki " has caused a schism within the ruling Dawa party, which has been in power since 2005.In spite of the political splits among the Shia community do not constitute a new trend yet, but the antagonism between "Abadi" and" Maliki" as well as populist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's scope of influence, are expected to have a significant impact on government formation in the coming days (2) .So the State of Law Coalition is under the aegis of former prime minister " Nouri al-Maliki " who aspires to return to power for four years again after being forced out of office under domestic and international pressures .Meanwhile, The alliance enjoys the support of several Shia militias and political forces and movements with its organizations , such as the Asaib Ahl al-Haq paramilitary, which consider Abadi as a weak leader (3) ."AL-Abadi" and his victory Coalition could face many difficulties in gaining support from Kurds due to his harsh response to the Kurdish referendum, and he struggles to garner support from the reformists and liberals (4) .
The Fatah Alliance is a result of a schism within the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which has been one of Dawa's major rivals for decades but has not been able to recover from the split with its military arm, the Badr Organization , which left (ISCI ) during the 2014 parliamentary elections campaign to join Dawa's State of Law coalition.The Fatah Alliance was formed by PMF and includes ISCI's traditionalists and members of the Badr Organization, which has become the strongest individual group among the PMF.It is led by" Hadi al-Amiri" the former Iraqi minister of transportation and the head of the Badr Organization (5) .Al-Hikmah is another product of the divisions within the (ISCI) ,and the coalition was formed by " Ammar al-Hakim", who broke with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq in July 2017, amid tensions with ISCI's old guard ; and " Al Hakim" wants to appear as a moderate cleric, acceptable within the Sunni world and free from Iran's influence.So he seeks to appeal to a younger and more progressive generation of Iraqis (6) .
Consequently , the Marching toward Reform Coalition includes a wide range of elements, including the Iraqi Communist Party, the Sadrist movement (Istiqama) as well as other leftists and secular groups.It is led although by an alliance between a religious movement and a secular party appears paradoxically , this coalition has been leading a dynamic anti-corruption campaign and is expected to gain many of seats.Several small Sunni and secular groups have joined the Sadr-led alliance, which has focused its discourse on the widespread corruption among governmental structures on the need to move away from the quota system (7) .Furthermore , " Al-Abadi " the prime minister of Iraq's government called for all political forces that participated in the last election of May 2018 , to conduct a real discourse according to the national principles for making a new circumstances to form the upcoming government and to be more far the quota and political dealings and compromise as what happened previously ; and to be more comprehensively by gathering all political coalitions as The al-Qarar Al-Iraqi Coalition and The al-Wataniya Alliance and Kurdish parties alike .
In nowadays , it is now clear that Iraqi parliamentary elections will be held on 12 May 2018; leaving aside the political arguments of those advocating a postponement and others wishing to see elections held by their constitutional deadline, there are bigger problems being ignored, wittingly or unintentionally within Iraqi political circles that become most significantly extreme political fragmentation and blatant foreign intervention to draw the next map of political forces and alliances (1) .
In short, politics and political forces in Iraq, after more than fifteen years from the establishment of the new Iraqi democratic state, it remained a prisoner of foreign relations and the influence of foreign powers, whether regional or international, Arab or non-Arab powerful actors .In the 2010 elections, the nationalist-oriented Iraqi list, backed by Turkey and several Arab states, came away with the biggest parliamentary bloc, but Iranian pressure and tacit U.S consent undermined the results of the ballot box.Al -Shia parliamentary coalition was formed after the elections that returned " Al-Maliki " to premiership, so many Things are not much different in 2018.The ongoing, effective foreign influence in Iraq clearly indicates that the results of the coming elections will not be the sole factor determining who will govern but many things more pertaining with political stability might made another opportunity for the future of the political democracy's process (2) .

Conclusions
The political instability among governing elites and non -governing sectors , became depending permanently on the bargains , compromise , conformity , quota and many other procedures that used by means of the political pressure or banishment and sometimes practicing by the cooptation alike .Thus , there were several interpretations incompatible with the real understanding of permanent constitution and the values of the liberal democracy as well ; So that the political scene has witnessed many of crises and serious events concerning with the different matters and might influenced over the political stability notably after the elections of 2018 , and it will a year of change at anyhow .The prime minister " Al -Abadi " will lead an alliance ( Victory alliance ) that will try to investment all the chances of making victory against the terrorists groups as much as possible , he will likely also be supported by " Moqtada al-Sadr "as a leader of the powerful Sadrist movement, which has now reinvented itself as a supporter of state authority and the rule of law after his results that approximately proved its popular powerful somewhat with the other political coalitions and alliances which took part in the last elections .
But the coming government will form according to the compromise and political conformity ( Power sharing ) as soon as to allow a sufficient number of political groups in order to occupy lucrative ministerial positions, which they then use to enrich themselves and finance ;and which they need in order to guarantee their government positions and that whatever progress is made in living standard ; and it is sometimes painfully slow and limited in scope , and considering into an account the failures of the past period results .
Ultimately , we should remember very vigilant to what happened when the popular protestors entered the headquarters of Prime Minister's Office on 20 May 2016 ; as a result of lagging accomplishment the comprehensive reforms in different sides of public life for any citizen in Iraq .So that the inevitability of making an initiative to settle all pending problems is very necessity henceforward by capitalizing all political support which powered just from Iraqi people at any circumstances and crises which encountered the political process of democracy ; and making a national settlement for all different problems within political process as a suitable unique team homogeneously and to be an active in the merits and its outcomes for the future of political process in Iraq's democracy .