Determining the Probability of Cyberattacks

  • Pavel Yermalovich Ph.D. student, Faculté des Sciences et de Génie, Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada
  • Mohamed Mejri Département d'informatique et de génie logiciel, Faculté des sciences et de génie, Université Laval


The use of information is inextricably linked with its security. The presence of vulnerabilities enables a third party to breach the security of information. Threat modeling helps to identify those infrastructures, which would be most likely exposed to cyberattacks. In some cases, however, threat modeling can not be classified as sufficient method of protection. This paper entitled “Determining the probability of cyberattacks” presents an analysis of different techniques with an attempt to identify the most informative parameters and cyberattack prediction markers, which would lay the foundation for the development of cyberattack probability functions. Next, it would be relevant to design such cyberattack probability functions, which would be used upon the initial identification of a cyberattack. The findings of this research could be applied during the future assessment of risk levels of information systems to ensure more effective information security management.

Feb 21, 2020
How to Cite
YERMALOVICH, Pavel; MEJRI, Mohamed. Determining the Probability of Cyberattacks. European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences, [S.l.], v. 4, n. 1, p. 46-63, feb. 2020. ISSN 2601-6311. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 11 aug. 2020. doi: